Is the Christian Divorce Rate Really 50%?

“Getting married is dangerous,” writes Rich Lusk. ^a Marriage is an intrinsically risky endeavor. And as laws in our culture reflect more and more a debased understanding of this sacred covenant, entering into marriage becomes even riskier. It does not take long to realize that ideas have consequences, and those consequences become a reality quickly in a marriage.

Whether a marriage implodes catastrophically or deteriorates slowly over time, it is no sight to behold. It is painful, and if children are involved, the pain is doubled.  But is this the picture we are to expect in the local church? Should divorce no longer shock us? In other words, have our expectations become the same as the expectations of those outside the covenant community?

Famous Divorce Statistics

I lost count of the dozens of times that I have heard pastors and parishioners alike quote the famous statistics on the Christian divorce rate. These numbers are used to put the fear of God on young couples contemplating marriage, or to enforce the time-tested method of guilt manipulation to get men to get their act together. Sometimes, of course, these are just numbers thrown out to indicate just how far the Church has been corrupted by the present culture.

“50% of all Christian marriages end in divorce” is the claim I’ve often have heard for the last 15-years. While the numbers can sound alarming, I just simply cannot believe they are true. And I have reason for my skepticism.  The first reason is that I do not believe the famous Barna numbers are theologically accurate. Notice I said “theologically.” They may be accurate, if you wish to accept the Barna Group’s categories, but if you dig deeper you may not begin with the same assumptions.

Barna defined a “born-again” Christian as someone who has “made a personal commitment to Jesus and believe they will go to heaven because they have accepted him as their savior.” The definition is purposefully vague; it says nothing about baptism, church attendance, or Bible reading. Another important detail is that Mormons are also added to the mix among Catholics and evangelicals. Orthodox Christians have rejected any non-Trinitarian expression as legitimately Christian in the creedal sense. According to another poll by the same group:

 15% of born again Christians deny the resurrection of Christ; 28% believe that Jesus committed sins during His life on earth; 34% believe that if a person is good enough he can earn a place in heaven; 26% believe that it doesn’t matter what faith you follow because they all teach the same lessons; and 45% believe that Satan is a symbol of evil rather than an actual being. In other words, many of these “born again Christians” are not born again at all. ^b

I understand that Barna’s purpose was not to theologize over the definition of a “born-again” Christian, but by not differentiating he left a gigantic door open to abusive generalizations that skew the dependability of the final data sample.

When the pastor of an evangelical church, who affirms the basic tenets of the Christian faith, decides to employ the Barna Group as a source for an anecdotal illustration, he is applying the statistics to the wrong audience.

Bradley Wright, who did extensive research over these numbers, concluded that the number was actually around 42%. ^c He also added that “worship attendance has a big influence on the numbers. Six in 10 evangelicals who never attend had been divorced or separated, compared to just 38% of weekly attendees.” The 8% drop may not seem much, but it does bring down the magnitude of the 50% number.

Barna’s number may prove accurate if we are to make the “born-again” category to include Mormons and Jesus-Seminar followers, and the vastly un-churched “born-again” population in America. ^d However, were Barna to treat “born-again” believers as adherents to the Apostle’s Creed, my suspicion would be that those numbers would decline dramatically. These footnotes are rarely, if ever mentioned in these discussions. If pastors knew these facts it would alter the way they apply these numbers.

Is marriage in good shape in America? No. Have churches failed to protect and defend marriage as a sacred covenant between man and woman? Yes. But to use these numbers and assume that the Christian population is just as prone to divorce as the non-Christian population is a misguided conclusion.

Uri Brito is the founder of Kuyperian Commentary. He blogs regularly at uribrito.com

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1. Edited by Uri Brito. The Church-Friendly Family, 81  (back)
2. John MacArthur, More Divorce Among Believers?  (back)
3. http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/religion/2011-03-14-divorce-christians_N.htm; that is an 8% drop  (back)
4. The Jesus Seminar followers have a long tradition of denying just about every claim made by Jesus in the New Testament, especially as it concerns his physical resurrection from the dead  (back)